Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts

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The subseasonal to seasonal research and operational prediction community should be engaged in an ongoing dialogue with user communities in order to match what is scientifically feasible with what users find actionable, as both technical forecasting capabilities and user needs continually evolve. The second strategy is to focus on increasing the skill and accuracy of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, the report says.

Tailored forecasts

This will require improvements in all parts of the forecast systems, including expanding observations, improving data assimilation methods, reducing model errors, and improving methods for quantifying uncertainties and verifying forecasts outcomes. The committee's third research strategy is to focus on improving the forecasts of extreme and disruptive events, such as winter storms, excessive rainfall events, and intense heat waves, and the consequences of unanticipated events caused by outside forces such as volcanoes, meteor impacts, and oil spills. Improved prediction of extreme and disruptive events and of the consequences of unanticipated forcing events would give communities more time to plan ahead and mitigate.

The development of advanced Earth system model components beyond the lower atmosphere, which has been the traditional focus of numerical weather prediction, also requires more attention, the committee noted. The final research strategy calls for developing more sophisticated models of the ocean, land surface, and cryosphere and other Earth system components and expanding predictions to include more variables relevant to subseasonal and seasonal decision making, such as air quality and sea-ice characteristics, in forecast models.

The report notes these research strategies will all require advances in the U. The sheer volume of observational data, data assimilation steps, and model output involved in this forecasting challenges the limits of current cyber-infrastructure. This growing subseasonal to seasonal field also needs a workforce able to cross traditional disciplinary boundaries within Earth sciences, between computing and physical science fields, and to bridge the divide between researchers and decision makers.

Materials provided by National Academy of Sciences.

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Note: Content may be edited for style and length. Science News. ScienceDaily, 29 March National Academy of Sciences. Longer-term weather, environmental forecasts will provide enormous benefit. Retrieved September 25, from www. Atmospheric scientists now demonstrate the ability to make skillful predictions SAMOS program helps improve weather predictions. Although these measurements help meteorologists predict the weather each day, they also play a key role in calibrating measurements from satellites orbiting the Earth.

Traditionally, marine weather measurements from ships are only taken once an hour. This hourly sampling proved to be inadequate to calibrate satellite sensors--particularly those measuring winds over the ocean because the winds can change in a matter of minutes at any given location. To solve this problem, in , a group of scientists designed a program to collect marine weather observations once a minute from oceanographic research vessels.

Because satellites take many more readings than ships or other observation platforms, increasing the number of measurements on ships allowed scientists to better match ship and satellite observations in space and time. This helped improve the methods used by satellites to measure surface weather conditions. These calibrated satellite data are, in turn, used by the computer models to improve daily weather forecasts. Read the full article. DOMS website launched. When complete, DOMS will provide a mechanism for users to input a series of geospatial references for satellite observations e.

Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting

The inverse of inputting in situ geospatial data e. The DOMS prototype includes several characteristic in situ and satellite observation datasets. Importantly, although DOMS will be established with these selected datasets, it will be readily extendable to other in situ and satellite collections, which could support additional science disciplines.

It will also be an excellent tool for students to understand the overall modeling process system. The TechTopics Series formerly known as Industry Sector Roundtables , focuses on the unique research assets and commercialization opportunities specific to the city's Innovation Park. Zierden presented on the Super El Nino and how it impacts climate and extreme weather in Florida.

1. Introduction

Powell gave an update on the work being conducted by HWind Scientific, a real-time hurricane data company. FSU Day at the Capitol. Only a Category 1 at landfall, Hurricane Irene had plenty of energy. Photo credit: HWind Scientific. Educational Outreach. COAPS showcases science and fun! This year's open house was attended by nearly visitors and featured something for everyone Attendees learned how drones are used to observe the earth, about rising seas, marine data, and how COAPS researchers are modelling the ocean and atmosphere.

They were able to drive an underwater robot, and to see and touch live sea creatures thanks to our colleagues in the FSU Biology Department's Sea-to-See program. They also learned about the Florida Climate Center from Dr. COAPS authors are in bold. Ali, M. Bourassa , S. Bhowmick, R. Sharma and K. Niharika , Retrieval of wind stress at the ocean surface from AltiKa measurements.

Read Next Generation Earth System Prediction Strategies For Subseasonal To Seasonal Forecasts 2016

Ansong, B. Arbic, J. Richman , J. Shriver, P. Timko, A. Wallcraft, C. Whalen, and Z. Journal of Physical Oceanography , Early online edition, February DOI: Cammarano, D.

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